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Charlotte, NC Metro Retail Gas Forecast

PADD 1C South Atlantic Model
Current Live Pump Base

$3.428/gal

Live Pump Calibration Anchor

5-Day Projected Forecast

$3.343/gal

-2.5% Projected Trend

Out-of-Time Error (MAE)

$0.1174/gal

MAPE: 3.96% | RMSE: $0.1635

Directional Accuracy

48.48%

Out-of-Time Test Hit Rate

Model Narrative & Catalyst Breakdown Colonial Pipeline Line 1 Dispatch PADD 1C Supply Cushion Terminal Rack Softening

Charlotte & Piedmont region pump prices are projected to decline -$0.085/gal (-2.5%).

Charlotte & Piedmont retail gasoline reflects pipeline flows along the Colonial Pipeline corridor to Paw Creek Terminal (Colonial & Plantation Pipeline Paw Creek Terminal). Steady line throughput and healthy terminal inventories across the Carolinas are facilitating downward cost pass-through at local retail pumps.

Key Attribution Drivers
Colonial Pipeline Line 1 Proration to Paw Creek Terminal -$0.042/gal
PADD 1C Regional Highway Freight Demand (BTS TSI) -$0.025/gal
Gulf Coast Wholesale Spot Basis -$0.018/gal

Component-Level Feature Attribution & Driver Breakdown

XAI Model Interpretability

Executive Model Attribution Summary: Charlotte NC forecast $-0.085/gal (-2.48%): Driven primarily by Regional Logistics & Hub Delivery ($-0.034/gal), Futures & Commodity Benchmark ($-0.021/gal).

Regional Logistics & Hub Delivery -$0.034/gal

Ecodeveloped pipeline loading flows

Model Share Weight 40.0%
Futures & Commodity Benchmark -$0.021/gal

Softening NYMEX energy futures contract prices

Model Share Weight 25.0%
Refining Yield & Crack Spread -$0.013/gal

Narrowing refining margins and elevated product yield

Model Share Weight 15.0%
Weather & Environmental Signals -$0.009/gal

Favorable multi-basin weather conditions

Model Share Weight 10.0%
Unstructured Intelligence & Sentiment -$0.004/gal

OPEC price pressure talkdown & dovish geopolitical news

Model Share Weight 5.0%
Tax & Regulatory Overhead -$0.004/gal

Tax relief or off-peak RVP specification

Model Share Weight 5.0%

Regional Econometric Drivers & Physical Infrastructure Factors

Cross-Border Tax Econometric Drivers

NC ($0.404/gal) vs SC ($0.288/gal) motor fuel tax differential creates a persistent ~$0.116/gal cross-border price gap with Fort Mill & Rock Hill, SC.

Paw Creek Hub & Dual Pipelines

Paw Creek Petroleum Distribution Hub receives dual pipeline flows from Colonial Line 1 & Plantation Pipeline, supplying major tank farms in West Charlotte.

NC/SC Tax Structure & Overhead

NC Motor Fuel Tax ($0.404/gal) + Federal ($0.184/gal) = $0.588/gal total in NC, vs $0.472/gal total across the South Carolina border line.

Interstate Delivery & Weather Risk

$$\text{Rack Margin} = P_{\text{Charlotte Retail}} - P_{\text{Wholesale RBOB}} = \$3.280 - \$3.184 = \$0.096/\text{gal}$$

I-85 & I-77 freight corridor distribution across Mecklenburg and York counties, evaluated against NOAA NCZ071 Piedmont winter ice storm alerts.

Charlotte Regional Shock Scenario Simulations

Paw Creek Hub Power Blackout

Substation outage halts automated rack loading at West Charlotte distribution hub.

+ $0.185/gal (+5.64%)

Colonial Line 1 Batch Throttling

Emergency batch throttling reduces wholesale gasoline deliveries to Charlotte terminals.

+ $0.165/gal (+5.03%)

Winter Ice Storm Transit Lockdown

Freezing rain locks down I-85 & I-77 logistics corridors across Mecklenburg County.

+ $0.140/gal (+4.27%)