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Tulsa, OK Metro Retail Gas Forecast

PADD 2 Refining Hub Model
Current Live Pump Base

$3.800/gal

Live Pump Calibration Anchor

5-Day Projected Forecast

$3.800/gal

0.0% Projected Trend

Out-of-Time Error (MAE)

$0.1174/gal

MAPE: 3.96% | RMSE: $0.1635

Directional Accuracy

48.48%

Localized NOAA & Cushing crack spread

Historical Tulsa Retail Prices vs. 5-Day Model Predictions

Regional Tulsa Counterfactual Shock Scenarios

Estimated real-time Tulsa pump price impact under localized refinery & weather disruptions:

EF-3 Tornado Outbreak

West Tulsa HF Sinclair Strike

$3.954 (+$0.173/gal)

Halts 125,000 bpd refinery loading racks

Cushing Freeze Warning

Payne County (OKZ066) Sub-Zero Freeze

$3.925 (+$0.145/gal)

Disrupts crude tank farm pumping velocity

Keystone Pipeline Spill

Cushing Delivery Feeder Cut

$3.954 (+$0.173/gal)

Temporary Canadian crude influx drop

Model Narrative & Catalyst Breakdown Mid-Continent Supply Equilibrium Stable Rack Margins

Tulsa pump prices are projected to remain stable over the next 5 business days.

Tulsa retail gasoline prices are projected to hold steady (Cushing WTI Storage & West Tulsa HF Sinclair), with balanced Mid-Continent refining runs and stable Cushing crude benchmarks maintaining equilibrium across local distribution racks.

Key Attribution Drivers
Cushing WTI Crack Spread Dynamics $0.000/gal
Mid-Continent Refining Baseline & Supply $0.000/gal
PADD 2 Product Inventory Balance $0.000/gal

Component-Level Feature Attribution & Driver Breakdown

XAI Model Interpretability

Executive Model Attribution Summary: Tulsa OK forecast stable ($0.000/gal): Balanced supply/demand indicators.

Regional Logistics & Hub Delivery $0.000/gal

Unrestricted terminal dispatch

Model Share Weight 30.0%
Refining Yield & Crack Spread $0.000/gal

Steady refinery utilization

Model Share Weight 30.0%
Futures & Commodity Benchmark $0.000/gal

Stable energy commodity baseline

Model Share Weight 25.0%
Weather & Environmental Signals $0.000/gal

Neutral weather impact

Model Share Weight 10.0%
Unstructured Intelligence & Sentiment $0.000/gal

Neutral news sentiment

Model Share Weight 3.0%
Tax & Regulatory Overhead $0.000/gal

Fixed statutory tax overhead

Model Share Weight 2.0%

Regional Econometric Drivers & Physical Infrastructure Factors

Cushing WTI Econometric Drivers

Located 50 miles west of Tulsa, Cushing, OK is the physical delivery point for NYMEX WTI crude. Localized rack margins reflect direct crude benchmark access, regional crack spreads, and Mid-Continent market competition.

West Tulsa Refining & Supply Logistics

HF Sinclair West Tulsa Refinery (125,000 bpd capacity) processes sweet/sour crude streams, dispatching refined unleaded blendstock across Magellan Pipeline terminals to local jobbers and retail stations.

Oklahoma Tax Structure & Statutory Overhead

Oklahoma state motor fuel tax ($0.190/gal) plus US Federal excise tax ($0.184/gal) and UST fees create a total statutory tax burden of $0.374/gal—the lowest tax overhead among Midgley metro benchmarks.

Tulsa Delivery Hub & Dynamic Rack Margin

$$\text{Rack Margin} = P_{\text{Tulsa Retail}} - P_{\text{Wholesale RBOB}} = \$3.890 - \$3.184 = \$0.706/\text{gal}$$

Calibrates wholesale futures returns directly into Creek, Tulsa & Rogers county tank truck dispatch prices.