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Houston, TX Metro Retail Gas Forecast

PADD 3 USGC Refining Epicenter
Current Live Pump Base

$3.658/gal

Live Pump Calibration Anchor

5-Day Projected Forecast

$3.658/gal

0.0% Projected Trend

Out-of-Time Error (MAE)

$0.1174/gal

MAPE: 3.96% | RMSE: $0.1635

Directional Accuracy

48.48%

Out-of-Time Test Hit Rate

Model Narrative & Catalyst Breakdown USGC Refining Equilibrium Ship Channel Clearing Parity

Houston & Gulf Coast retail prices are projected to remain stable.

Houston retail prices are projected to hold steady (ExxonMobil Baytown (560 kbpd) & Motiva Port Arthur (630 kbpd) Refining Complex), as balanced throughput from Baytown, Deer Park, and Port Arthur refineries matches metropolitan commuter demand and outbound pipeline nominations.

Key Attribution Drivers
USGC Mega-Refinery Runs & Baytown/Port Arthur Capacity $0.000/gal
Colonial Pipeline Line 1 Inbound Terminal Clearing $0.000/gal
Houston Ship Channel Spot-to-Rack Compression $0.000/gal

Component-Level Feature Attribution & Driver Breakdown

XAI Model Interpretability

Executive Model Attribution Summary: Houston TX forecast stable ($0.000/gal): Balanced supply/demand indicators.

Refining Yield & Crack Spread $0.000/gal

Steady refinery utilization

Model Share Weight 35.0%
Futures & Commodity Benchmark $0.000/gal

Stable energy commodity baseline

Model Share Weight 25.0%
Weather & Environmental Signals $0.000/gal

Neutral weather impact

Model Share Weight 20.0%
Regional Logistics & Hub Delivery $0.000/gal

Unrestricted terminal dispatch

Model Share Weight 10.0%
Unstructured Intelligence & Sentiment $0.000/gal

Neutral news sentiment

Model Share Weight 5.0%
Tax & Regulatory Overhead $0.000/gal

Fixed statutory tax overhead

Model Share Weight 5.0%

Regional Econometric Drivers & Physical Infrastructure Factors

USGC Refining Epicenter & Direct Gate Pricing Pass-Through

Models razor-thin retail rack margins resulting from direct refinery gate proximity to mega-refinery clusters along the Houston Ship Channel, Baytown, and Port Arthur. Anchored by the lowest state fuel excise taxes in the country ($0.200/gal TX MFT + $0.184/gal federal = $0.384/gal baseline) with high sensitivity to Atlantic/Gulf tropical weather systems, hurricane shut-ins, and waterborne export cargo arbitrage.

North American Refining Epicenter (>52% of U.S. Operable Capacity)

Anchored by the world's densest concentration of mega-refining assets: ExxonMobil Baytown (560 kbpd), Motiva Port Arthur (630 kbpd), Marathon Galveston Bay (593 kbpd), PEMEX Deer Park (312 kbpd), Valero Port Arthur (395 kbpd), and Chevron Pasadena (112 kbpd). Serves as origin injection point for Colonial Pipeline (Lines 1 & 2) supplying the Atlantic Seaboard and Explorer Pipeline supplying the Midwest.

Texas Statutory Motor Fuel Excise Tax Burden

Texas state motor fuel tax ($0.200/gal statutory fixed excise, no sales tax on motor fuel) and Federal excise tax ($0.184/gal) create a total baseline tax burden of $0.384/gal, among the lowest in the United States.

Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Spot & Rack Margin Dynamics

$$\text{Rack Margin}_{\text{Houston}} = P_{\text{Houston Retail}} - P_{\text{USGC Spot}} = \$2.850 - \$2.150 = \$0.700/\text{gal}$$

Reflects prompt US Gulf Coast conventional gasoline spot benchmark at Houston Ship Channel terminals, EPA 7.8 psi summer volatility standard, and razor-thin retail distribution margins.

Houston Regional Shock Scenario Simulations

Category 4 Gulf Hurricane Landfall

Forces precautionary shutdown of Baytown and Texas City refineries, cutting >1.5M bpd capacity.

+ $0.350/gal (+12.28%)

Colonial Pipeline Line 1 Origin Metering Trip

Traps refined product in USGC storage, depressing local wholesale spot price while spiking East Coast.

- $0.095/gal (-3.33%)

Severe Gulf Coast Hard Freeze

Cuts industrial power and freezes refinery boiler feedwater lines, taking multiple USGC units offline.

+ $0.245/gal (+8.60%)