Experimental Model (Work In Progress)
The Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD) and Distillate Crack Engine is currently in an active multi-week observation phase. We are letting the engine cook for several weeks to evaluate empirical predictions against weekly feedback loops (
weekly_model_review.yml) before extending full regional metro calibration models to include Diesel. Issue #41 remains actively In Progress.
Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD) & Distillate Crack Engine
Commercial logistics, agricultural harvest demand, and regional rack margin forecasts for HO=F futures.
NY Harbor ULSD (HO=F)
$2.850/gal
NYMEX Futures Benchmark
Distillate Crack Spread
$0.742/gal
HO=F - (WTI/42)
3-2-1 Refining Margin
$0.685/gal
(2RBOB + 1ULSD - 3WTI)/3
5-Day Forecast Wholesale
$2.865/gal
▲ +0.53% Expected Uplift
Regional Retail Diesel Calibrations
Midwest / Tulsa, OK
$3.650/gal
Calibrated to PADD 2 agricultural harvest demand spikes, Cushing crude loading racks, and Midwest rack diesel draws.
Northeast / Newark, DE
$3.862/gal
Calibrated to PADD 1 Atlantic distillate supply, Colonial Pipeline Line 2 throughput, and winter home heating oil pool overlap.
West Coast / Oakland, CA
$5.250/gal
Includes statutory CARB ULSD tax, Cap-and-Trade carbon fees, LCFS deficit overhead, D4 RIN pricing, and RD99 renewable diesel blending.
Counterfactual Diesel Market Shock Simulator
Colonial Line 2 Outage
Colonial Pipeline Line 2 Distillate Outage
Halting 850,000 bpd distillate flow from USGC to East Coast generates a +$0.285/gal (+7.2%) wholesale shock.
Northeast Polar Vortex
Polar Vortex & Heating Oil Crunch
Sub-zero freeze draining Northeast heating oil stocks generates a +$0.340/gal (+8.5%) distillate shock.