Cincinnati, OH / Northern KY Cross-River Gas Forecast
Dual-State Fuel Tax & Price Differential Display
Comparing Hamilton County, OH pump prices against Northern Kentucky across the Ohio River
$4.207 /gal base
5-Day Forecast: $4.207/gal
$4.265 /gal base
5-Day Forecast: $4.176/gal
$0.1174 /gal
MAPE: 3.96% | RMSE: $0.1635
48.48%
River draft & Catlettsburg signals
Historical Ohio vs. Kentucky Retail Gas & RBOB Futures
Regional Refinery, River Logistics & Policy Shock Scenarios
Estimated real-time Cincinnati pump price impact under localized refinery, downriver Mississippi drought & tax shift events:
Marathon 291k bpd FCC Trip
$3.615 (+$0.165/gal)
Tightens Ohio Valley rack loading
Cairo Confluence Low Water
$3.595 (+$0.145/gal)
-40% barge draft payload limit
Markland Locks Ice Jam
$3.562 (+$0.112/gal)
Forces expensive rail transport
Ohio Fuel Tax Hike (+3.5¢)
$3.485 (+$0.035/gal)
Expands cross-river price gap
Cincinnati Tri-State retail prices are projected to remain stable.
Cincinnati Tri-State retail gasoline prices are projected to hold steady (Catlettsburg Refinery & Ohio River Tow Navigation), as balanced Ohio River barge deliveries and stable Catlettsburg refinery runs keep local rack margins anchored.
Key Attribution Drivers
Component-Level Feature Attribution & Driver Breakdown
XAI Model InterpretabilityExecutive Model Attribution Summary: Cincinnati OH forecast stable ($0.000/gal): Balanced supply/demand indicators.
Unrestricted terminal dispatch
Steady refinery utilization
Stable energy commodity baseline
Fixed statutory tax overhead
Neutral weather impact
Neutral news sentiment
Regional Econometric Drivers & Physical Infrastructure Factors
Tri-State Econometric Drivers & Cross-River Arbitrage
Models consumer cross-river refuel switching between Hamilton County OH and Northern Kentucky (Kenton/Boone counties) driven by the persistent $0.125/gal state fuel tax differential.
Refining & River Inland Waterway Logistics
Cincinnati marine terminals (Mile 470 on Ohio River) receive refined fuel via barges coming up the Lower Mississippi River through the Cairo IL confluence, supplemented by Marathon's 291,000 bpd Catlettsburg KY refinery and Buckeye Pipeline.
Dual-State Tax Structure & Statutory Fees
Ohio state fuel tax ($0.385/gal) vs Kentucky state fuel tax ($0.260/gal) combined with US Federal excise tax ($0.184/gal) creates total tax loads of $0.569/gal in OH vs $0.444/gal in KY.
Dual-State Delivery Hub & Rack Margin Equations
$$\text{Rack Margin}_{\text{OH}} = P_{\text{OH Retail}} - P_{\text{Wholesale RBOB}} = \$3.450 - \$3.184 = \$0.266/\text{gal}$$
Reflects the $0.125/gal state fuel tax differential across the Ohio River metropolitan boundary.