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Newark, DE Metro Retail Gas Forecast

PADD 1B Coastal Model
Current Live Pump Base

$3.985/gal

Live Pump Calibration Anchor

5-Day Projected Forecast

$3.903/gal

-2.1% Projected Trend

Out-of-Time Error (MAE)

$0.1688/gal

MAPE: 3.96% | RMSE: $0.1635

Directional Accuracy

39.29%

DEZ001 NOAA & C&D Canal detour signals

Historical Newark Retail Prices vs. 5-Day Model Predictions

Regional Newark & Maritime Counterfactual Shock Scenarios

Estimated real-time Newark pump price impact under localized refinery, weather & maritime channel disruptions:

PBF Delaware City Outage

Fluid Catalytic Cracker Shutdown

$3.535 (+$0.185/gal)

Halts 180,000 bpd refinery loading racks

C&D Canal Shoaling Detour

Emergency 300 nm Delmarva Route

$3.447 (+$0.097/gal)

+35% marine barge freight rate surge

Delaware Bay Ice Lockout

Big Stone Anchorage Lightering Freeze

$3.462 (+$0.112/gal)

Delays foreign crude tanker discharge

Model Narrative & Catalyst Breakdown PADD 1B Inventory Replenishment Delmarva Shipping Flow Harbor Rack Easing

Newark & Delaware Valley prices are projected to decline -$0.082/gal (-2.1%).

The Newark metro model projects retail price easing in pump prices (Delaware City Refinery & PADD 1B Harbor), supported by Central Atlantic (PADD 1B) clean product inventory replenishment and smooth Delmarva waterway navigation. Regional refinery operations and waterborne terminal receipts maintain stable supply cushions.

Key Attribution Drivers
PADD 1B Clean Product Inventory Balance -$0.041/gal
Delmarva Shipping Channel Logistics Spread -$0.025/gal
Wholesale RBOB Calendar Spread & Harbor Delivery -$0.016/gal

Component-Level Feature Attribution & Driver Breakdown

XAI Model Interpretability

Executive Model Attribution Summary: Newark DE forecast $-0.082/gal (-2.06%): Driven primarily by Refining Yield & Crack Spread ($-0.029/gal), Regional Logistics & Hub Delivery ($-0.021/gal).

Refining Yield & Crack Spread -$0.029/gal

Narrowing refining margins and elevated product yield

Model Share Weight 35.0%
Regional Logistics & Hub Delivery -$0.021/gal

Ecodeveloped pipeline loading flows

Model Share Weight 25.0%
Futures & Commodity Benchmark -$0.016/gal

Softening NYMEX energy futures contract prices

Model Share Weight 20.0%
Unstructured Intelligence & Sentiment -$0.008/gal

OPEC price pressure talkdown & dovish geopolitical news

Model Share Weight 10.0%
Tax & Regulatory Overhead -$0.004/gal

Tax relief or off-peak RVP specification

Model Share Weight 5.0%
Weather & Environmental Signals -$0.004/gal

Favorable multi-basin weather conditions

Model Share Weight 5.0%

Regional Econometric Drivers & Physical Infrastructure Factors

PADD 1B Import Parity & Econometric Levers

Newark sits in the PADD 1B Central Atlantic pricing zone where retail pump prices track NY Harbor wholesale RBOB futures, waterborne import parity from Europe, and regional Atlantic spot margins.

PBF Delaware City Refining & Maritime Logistics

Located 12 miles south of Newark, DE, PBF's Delaware City Refinery processes 180,000 bpd of heavy sour crude delivered via Delaware Bay lightering at Big Stone Anchorage and C&D Canal barge routes.

Delaware State Fuel Tax & Statutory Overhead

Delaware state motor fuel tax ($0.230/gal) combined with US Federal excise tax ($0.184/gal) establishes a total statutory tax overhead of $0.414/gal across New Castle County stations.

Newark Delivery Hub & Dynamic Rack Margin

$$\text{Rack Margin} = P_{\text{Newark Retail}} - P_{\text{Wholesale RBOB}} = \$4.354 - \$3.169 = \$1.185/\text{gal}$$

Calibrates predicted wholesale returns directly into local I-95 corridor pump station rack prices.