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Greater Chicago, IL/IN Metro Retail Gas Forecast

PADD 2 Great Lakes Hub
Current Live Pump Base

$4.919/gal

Live Pump Calibration Anchor

5-Day Projected Forecast

$4.919/gal

0.0% Projected Trend

Out-of-Time Error (MAE)

$0.1174/gal

MAPE: 3.96% | RMSE: $0.1635

Directional Accuracy

48.48%

Out-of-Time Test Hit Rate

Model Narrative & Catalyst Breakdown Midwest Refining Balance Chicago CBOB Parity

Chicagoland retail prices are projected to remain stable.

Chicagoland retail gasoline prices are projected to hold steady (BP Whiting (435 kbpd) & CITGO Lemont (177 kbpd) Refining Complex), as balanced throughput from BP Whiting and CITGO Lemont matches metropolitan commuter demand across Cook County and Northwest Indiana.

Key Attribution Drivers
BP Whiting & Lemont Great Lakes Refining Complex $0.000/gal
Cook County / Northwest Indiana Tax Differential Arbitrage $0.000/gal
Chicago CBOB Wholesale Spot Rack Basis $0.000/gal

Component-Level Feature Attribution & Driver Breakdown

XAI Model Interpretability

Executive Model Attribution Summary: Chicago IL forecast stable ($0.000/gal): Balanced supply/demand indicators.

Tax & Regulatory Overhead $0.000/gal

Fixed statutory tax overhead

Model Share Weight 30.0%
Refining Yield & Crack Spread $0.000/gal

Steady refinery utilization

Model Share Weight 25.0%
Regional Logistics & Hub Delivery $0.000/gal

Unrestricted terminal dispatch

Model Share Weight 20.0%
Futures & Commodity Benchmark $0.000/gal

Stable energy commodity baseline

Model Share Weight 15.0%
Unstructured Intelligence & Sentiment $0.000/gal

Neutral news sentiment

Model Share Weight 5.0%
Weather & Environmental Signals $0.000/gal

Neutral weather impact

Model Share Weight 5.0%

Regional Econometric Drivers & Physical Infrastructure Factors

Chicagoland Multi-Tier Fuel Taxes & Cross-State Border Arbitrage

Models commuter fuel purchasing substitution between Cook County, IL (subject to state, county, municipal fuel taxes plus up to 10.25% composite sales tax) and Northwest Indiana (Lake and Porter counties) driven by a persistent $0.35-$0.55/gal cross-border retail price differential along the I-80/I-90/I-94 corridors.

Great Lakes Refining Complex & Midwest Pipeline Confluence

Chicagoland rack supplies are anchored by BP's 435,000 bpd Whiting IN refinery (6th largest in the US), CITGO's 177,000 bpd Lemont refinery along the Des Plaines River, and ExxonMobil's 251,000 bpd Joliet refinery. Inbound Western Canadian crude arrives via Enbridge pipelines, while outbound refined product disperses via the Wolverine, West Shore, and Badger pipelines.

Multi-Layered Municipal Tax Structure & Statutory Fees

Illinois state motor fuel tax ($0.470/gal, CPI-indexed), Cook County tax ($0.060/gal), City of Chicago fuel tax ($0.080/gal), environmental/UST fees ($0.011/gal), and Federal excise tax ($0.184/gal), combined with state and local sales tax on motor fuel, creates a statutory tax load exceeding $1.00/gal inside Chicago compared to ~$0.55/gal across the Indiana state line.

Chicago CBOB Delivery Hub & Rack Margin Dynamics

$$\text{Rack Margin}_{\text{Chicago}} = P_{\text{Chicago Retail}} - P_{\text{Chicago CBOB Spot}} = \$3.850 - \$2.325 = \$1.525/\text{gal}$$

Reflects the Chicago CBOB wholesale pipeline spot benchmark at the Hammond/Lemont terminal complexes, RFG 7.4 psi summer volatility compliance, and retail rack pass-through.

Greater Chicago Regional Shock Scenario Simulations

BP Whiting Power Failure & Unit Trip

Plant-wide electrical outage halts 435 kbpd refining operations at Whiting IN.

+ $0.285/gal (+7.40%)

Citgo Lemont Des Plaines Barge Lockout

Illinois Waterway lock maintenance restricts marine fuel transfers from 177 kbpd Lemont refinery.

+ $0.125/gal (+3.25%)

Great Lakes Polar Vortex Freeze-Off

Sub-zero Lake Michigan freeze halts terminal rack loading and refinery water cooling intake loops.

+ $0.165/gal (+4.28%)