New York, NY Metro Retail Gas Forecast
$4.382/gal
Live Pump Calibration Anchor
$4.382/gal
0.0% Projected Trend
$0.1174/gal
MAPE: 3.96% | RMSE: $0.1635
48.48%
Out-of-Time Test Hit Rate
New York Harbor & NY State retail prices are projected to remain stable.
New York retail prices are projected to hold steady (Phillips 66 Bayway Refinery (258 kbpd) & Buckeye Pipeline System), as balanced throughput from Bayway and coastal waterborne receipts matches regional commuter and transport demand across New York City, Long Island, and Upstate corridors.
Key Attribution Drivers
Component-Level Feature Attribution & Driver Breakdown
XAI Model InterpretabilityExecutive Model Attribution Summary: New York NY forecast stable ($0.000/gal): Balanced supply/demand indicators.
Steady refinery utilization
Stable energy commodity baseline
Fixed statutory tax overhead
Unrestricted terminal dispatch
Neutral weather impact
Neutral news sentiment
Regional Econometric Drivers & Physical Infrastructure Factors
New York Harbor Pricing Epicenter, High Statutory Tax Burden & Upstate Logistics Wedge
New York Harbor serves as the primary physical benchmark for NYMEX RBOB gasoline futures and Atlantic coast waterborne trading. Retail pricing across New York State reflects a complex synthesis of coastal barge economics, Phillips 66 Bayway refinery output, a heavy statutory state tax burden ($0.472/gal baseline before county sales surcharges), EPA summer RFG specifications across NYC and Long Island, and regional midstream trucking premiums across Upstate New York and the Adirondacks.
Bayway Refining Anchor, Buckeye Pipeline Corridors & Waterborne Barging
Regional product supply is anchored by Phillips 66 Bayway Refinery in Linden, NJ (258 kbpd), the largest refinery on the East Coast. Refined products move throughout New York via the Buckeye Pipeline system (supplying NYC airports, Long Island, Albany, and Rochester), Colonial Pipeline Line 1 terminus, and coastal barge lightering through the Arthur Kill, Hudson River, and Long Island Sound.
New York State Statutory Fuel Excise, Petroleum Business Tax & Sales Tax Structure
New York State imposes an aggregate statutory baseline motor fuel tax of $0.472/gal, comprising the state motor fuel excise tax ($0.0805/gal), Petroleum Business Tax (PBT, $0.1915/gal), state sales tax equivalent ($0.160/gal statutory baseline capped), and spill tax ($0.003/gal). Local county and municipal sales taxes add an additional $0.08 to $0.16/gal depending on jurisdiction, bringing combined state and local taxes to over $0.55/gal. Combined with the Federal excise tax ($0.184/gal), the statutory baseline tax burden is $0.656/gal.
New York Harbor Rack Parity, Midstream Tariffs & North Country Transport Freight
$$\text{Rack Margin}_{\text{NY}} = P_{\text{NY Retail}} - P_{\text{NY Harbor Wholesale Spot}} = \$3.480 - \$2.300 = \$1.180/\text{gal}$$
Wholesale transactions clear at the New York Harbor barge complex and Linden rack terminals. Transportation tariffs along the Buckeye Pipeline add midstream transit costs to Albany and Western NY, while rural trucking into North Country and resort destinations (e.g. Lake Placid ZIP 12946) commands an additional logistics basis premium of +15¢ to +35¢/gal over harbor rack parity.
New York Harbor & PADD 1B Shock Scenario Simulations
Buckeye Pipeline Linden Terminal Junction Disruption
Severe pumping disruption or electrical outage at Buckeye Linden NJ terminal restricts pipeline batch delivery to NYC metro airports and Long Island terminals.
New York Harbor Barge Freeze & Fog Halt
Extended polar vortex ice floes along the Hudson River and Arthur Kill halt waterborne barge traffic supplying terminal racks.
Phillips 66 Bayway FCCU Spring Maintenance Turnaround
Scheduled 4-week catalytic cracking turnaround at Bayway Refinery (258 kbpd) temporarily curtails regional clean product output.