Los Angeles, CA Metro Retail Gas Forecast
$5.996/gal
Live Pump Calibration Anchor
$5.996/gal
0.0% Projected Trend
$0.1174/gal
MAPE: 3.96% | RMSE: $0.1635
48.48%
Out-of-Time Test Hit Rate
Los Angeles Basin & Southern California prices are projected to remain stable.
Los Angeles Basin retail prices are projected to hold steady (Marathon Carson/Wilmington (363 kbpd), Chevron El Segundo (269 kbpd) & PBF Torrance (166 kbpd) CaRFG Complex), as balanced CARBOB production across Carson, Wilmington, El Segundo, and Torrance matches commuter demand across the South Coast Air Basin.
Key Attribution Drivers
Component-Level Feature Attribution & Driver Breakdown
XAI Model InterpretabilityExecutive Model Attribution Summary: Los Angeles CA forecast stable ($0.000/gal): Balanced supply/demand indicators.
Fixed statutory tax overhead
Steady refinery utilization
Stable energy commodity baseline
Unrestricted terminal dispatch
Neutral weather impact
Neutral news sentiment
Regional Econometric Drivers & Physical Infrastructure Factors
South Coast Air Basin CaRFG Island & CARBOB Spot Pass-Through
Models Southern California's isolated PADD 5 CARBOB refining complex and strict South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD) / CARB Phase 3 reformulated gasoline mandates. Retail pricing is driven by prompt Los Angeles CARBOB wholesale spot basis, CEC Southern California refinery utilization rates, early spring summer-blend RVP cutovers (6.99 psi cap), and San Pedro Bay waterborne import arbitrage.
Southern California Refining Cluster (~1.02M bpd Operable Capacity)
Anchored by the dense South Bay and Harbor refining corridor: Marathon Carson/Wilmington (363 kbpd), Chevron El Segundo (269 kbpd), PBF Energy Torrance (166 kbpd), Phillips 66 Wilmington (139 kbpd), and Valero Wilmington (85 kbpd). Supplies Southern California, Orange County, the Inland Empire, Las Vegas, and Phoenix via Kinder Morgan SFPP West, South, and East pipeline systems.
CARB Environmental Tax, Cap-and-Trade & LA County Sales Tax Burden
California imposes $0.953/gal state environmental tax and regulatory fee burden ($0.596 excise + $0.234 Cap-and-Trade + $0.088 LCFS + $0.035 UST/fees), yielding $1.407/gal total statutory tax with Federal excise ($0.184/gal) and Los Angeles County/Metro district sales taxes.
Los Angeles CARBOB Spot & Watson Station Rack Margin Dynamics
$$\text{Rack Margin}_{\text{LA}} = P_{\text{LA Retail}} - P_{\text{LA CARBOB Spot}} = \$4.890 - \$2.890 = \$2.000/\text{gal}$$
Reflects prompt Los Angeles CARBOB wholesale spot benchmark (EIA EER_EPMRU_PF4_RLA_DPG), Kinder Morgan Watson Station (Carson) terminal injection, SCAQMD 6.99 psi summer volatility cap, and Newport-Inglewood / Palos Verdes fault seismic monitoring.
Los Angeles Basin Shock Scenario Simulations
El Segundo / Torrance FCC & Alkylation Trip
Unplanned FCC or HF alkylation trip across Chevron El Segundo (269 kbpd) or PBF Torrance (166 kbpd) cuts LA CARBOB blendstock.
Newport-Inglewood M6.2+ Seismic Isolation
Triggers automatic SCADA shutoff across Kinder Morgan Watson Station and South Bay refinery product manifolds.
San Pedro Bay Marine Berth & Import Surge
Pacific swell closures at Port of LA/Long Beach delay Asian/Middle Eastern crude and CARBOB alkylate tankers.