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Port St. Lucie, FL Metro Retail Gas Forecast

PADD 1C Waterborne Model
Current Live Pump Base

$3.915/gal

Live Pump Calibration Anchor

5-Day Projected Forecast

$3.826/gal

-2.3% Projected Trend

Out-of-Time Error (MAE)

$0.1174/gal

MAPE: 3.96% | RMSE: $0.1635

Directional Accuracy

48.48%

Out-of-Time Test Hit Rate

Model Narrative & Catalyst Breakdown Waterborne Tanker Freight Easing PADD 1C Marine Supply Parity Port Everglades Terminal Cushion

Port St. Lucie & Treasure Coast pump prices are projected to decline -$0.089/gal (-2.3%).

With no interstate refined product pipelines entering Florida, Port St. Lucie relies on waterborne Jones Act coastal tankers discharging at Port Everglades and Port Canaveral (Port Everglades Marine Offloading & Waterborne Freight). Easing marine charter freight and steady terminal buffer stocks are facilitating downward retail price pass-through.

Key Attribution Drivers
Jones Act Waterborne Coastal Tanker Charter Rates -$0.044/gal
Port Everglades Terminal Throughput Spread -$0.027/gal
Southeast Atlantic Clean Product Inventory Buffer -$0.018/gal

Component-Level Feature Attribution & Driver Breakdown

XAI Model Interpretability

Executive Model Attribution Summary: Port St Lucie FL forecast $-0.089/gal (-2.27%): Driven primarily by Regional Logistics & Hub Delivery ($-0.031/gal), Futures & Commodity Benchmark ($-0.022/gal).

Regional Logistics & Hub Delivery -$0.031/gal

Ecodeveloped pipeline loading flows

Model Share Weight 35.0%
Futures & Commodity Benchmark -$0.022/gal

Softening NYMEX energy futures contract prices

Model Share Weight 25.0%
Weather & Environmental Signals -$0.013/gal

Favorable multi-basin weather conditions

Model Share Weight 15.0%
Tax & Regulatory Overhead -$0.011/gal

Tax relief or off-peak RVP specification

Model Share Weight 12.0%
Refining Yield & Crack Spread -$0.007/gal

Narrowing refining margins and elevated product yield

Model Share Weight 8.0%
Unstructured Intelligence & Sentiment -$0.005/gal

OPEC price pressure talkdown & dovish geopolitical news

Model Share Weight 5.0%

Regional Econometric Drivers & Physical Infrastructure Factors

PADD 1C Waterborne Econometric Drivers

Retail pump prices track Gulf Coast RBOB spot indices plus waterborne ocean barge transit freight tariffs and Treasure Coast tank-truck delivery margins.

Refining & Waterborne Marine Logistics

Florida has zero crude oil refineries and zero interstate pipelines entering South Florida. Port St. Lucie is >95% dependent on waterborne tank barges offloading at Port Everglades and Port Canaveral.

Florida Motor Fuel Tax Structure

Florida state motor fuel tax ($0.384/gal state & local option) + Federal excise tax ($0.184/gal) creates a total statutory tax burden of $0.568/gal.

Delivery Hub & NOAA Risk Factors

$$\text{Rack Margin} = P_{\text{PSL Retail}} - P_{\text{Wholesale RBOB}} = \$3.380 - \$3.184 = \$0.196/\text{gal}$$

Port Everglades tank-truck dispatch via I-95 & Florida's Turnpike corridors to St. Lucie, Martin & Indian River counties, monitored against Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks.

Port St. Lucie Regional Shock Scenario Simulations

Port Everglades Loading Rack Deluge

Flash deluge flooding shuts loading racks at Fort Lauderdale marine terminal.

+ $0.245/gal (+7.25%)

Category 3 Atlantic Hurricane Landfall

Major Hurricane surge closes Port Everglades and Port Canaveral marine berths.

+ $0.225/gal (+6.66%)

Straits of Florida Marine Tanker Bottleneck

Gale warnings in Straits of Florida delay Gulf Coast waterborne tank barge offloading.

+ $0.175/gal (+5.18%)